2025 Investments - Post election - 2/1/25

 Where has the stock market been headed since DJT was elected? 

This is the question that is at the forefront of most of us. Most experts agree that there will be more volatility in the market in the Trump area. What is the justification for this statement? What causes volatility in the market? How is the volatility measured? 

Market volatility is measured by the VIX indicators, and VIX has a negative correlation with the market - In other words if the market goes up, the VIX goes down.  VIX is dynamic and moves every day and every second. VIX peaked during the financial crisis in Oct 2008 at 422%. As one would expect, when COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, it spiked in March 2020, reaching 355%. 

The decrease in interest rates during COVID-19 pushed the stock market to a new high and decreased the volatility. In the curve below, the purple line represents the S&P index, and the candle sticks the VIX indicator. The spike in VIX and the drop in S&P in March 2020 are too hard to miss.


In 2022, when Putin invaded Ukraine, the volatility spiked and stayed high for 10 months, and the market went down during this time. 

Several factors increase volatility, the most important of which is uncertainty. 

There is enough uncertainty in the market now, and volatility is beginning to rise. Trump has raised tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico. The US imports 60% of its crude oil from Canada and 10% from Mexico. Surprisingly, the US only imports 7% from Saudi Arabia.

Investors looking to navigate this evolving landscape might consider the following options:

  1. Domestic Oil Producers: U.S.-based companies not directly affected by the tariffs could see increased demand.

    • Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM): A leading U.S. oil and gas producer.

    • Chevron Corp. (CVX): Another major U.S. energy company.

  2. Refining Companies: Refiners capable of processing various crude types might better manage cost increases.

    • Valero Energy Corp. (VLO): A significant player in the refining sector.

    • Phillips 66 (PSX): Another key refiner with diverse operations.

  3. Energy Sector ETFs: For broader exposure, consider ETFs focusing on the U.S. energy sector.

    • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): Offers diversified investment across major U.S. energy companies.

    • United States Oil Fund (USO): Tracks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil price movements.

Monitoring these developments closely is essential, as market reactions can evolve with policy changes and geopolitical events.

The other way to invest is to invest directly in VIX. However, one must be extremely cautious, as the price can fluctuate every second. Careful technical analysis and a feel for market dynamics are necessary.

I am a lifelong student of the market, and my fascination with the market will never end!

This blog is not investment advice; I am not an investment advisor but a blogger.  You are investing at young risk. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What’s Next for Construction Spending?

What’s Next for Construction Spending? Construction isn’t just about buildings—it also encompasses engineering. Key players to watch include Fluor Corporation (FLR), Argan (AGX), Jacobs Engineering, and Aecon (ACM). These companies operate in diverse sectors, from oil and gas to data centers. With DJT likely to push for more drilling, the oil and gas sector could see a boost.   Case in point: Argan recently secured an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract with Sandow Lakes Energy for a natural gas-fired plant in Lee County, Texas.   Despite uncertainty since the election, construction spending isn’t expected to slow down, especially with rising power demand. While stocks in the sector have taken a hit, these companies remain worth watching. Top of Form All the companies above are fairly valued, with Jacobs having the lowest P/E ratio.   As of February 8, 2025, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for the specified companies are: ·    ...
Read more

NVDA Earnings and the state of the market

Market Overview The broad market is showing signs of weakness. With NVDA earnings scheduled for the coming week, IBD recommends maintaining only 40–60% market exposure. Other Considerations Airbus (GDR Symbol: EADSY): Airbus is performing well. Major airlines such as American Airlines (AA) and United Airlines (UAL) are switching from Boeing (BA) to Airbus. The valuation and technicals for Airbus are much more attractive than BA’s. Additionally, Airbus has corrected since reporting earnings, making it a good candidate for a moderate position. Boeing (BA): Although BA has risen this year, it experienced a correction last Friday. It may be worthwhile to consider a bear credit spread if the risk-to-reward ratio is favorable. Baidu (BIDU): BIDU is a solid company that typically trades within its Linear Regression channel, with the price currently between the top and the middle regression line. It might be worthwhile to explore Iron Condor strategies on BIDU. CF Industries (CLF): CLF reports...
Read more

Quantum Computing

Global Quantum Intelligence is a company that provides information about Quantum computing. Doug Finke is the co-founder. Here is the summary of his discussions with IBD: Quantum computing May Not Have a ChatGPT Moment, But It's Real Quantum computing stocks have recently drawn media attention but they remain highly volatile. Companies like I onQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS ) have seen significant stock declines i n 2025. Experts believe that the meaningful commercialization of quantum technology is still at least 15 years away. Quantum Market & Security Implications Global Quantum Intelligence (GQI) projects a  $15-$20 billion market  between  2025 and 2030 .  This market will involve cybersecurity , as quantum computing threatens traditional encryption methods. As AI becomes more and more mainstream, traditional cybersecurity measures will not work, and Governments and corporations need to invest in  post-quantum cryptog...
Read more